BearScout — a free forecasting game on real prediction-market questions
By the TraderBear team · Updated 2026-07-05
What it is. BearScout is a free forecasting game: you make probability forecasts ("calls") on real prediction-market questions, your call is locked, and when the question settles you are scored with a Brier score against the market's ask price at the moment you called. A pseudonymous ladder ranks forecasters by calibration. There is no real money involved — it is deliberate practice for probability judgment, not trading.
How the scoring works
A Brier score is the squared error between a probability forecast and the outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if not). Forecasting 70% on an event that happens scores (1 − 0.7)² = 0.09; on one that doesn't, 0.49. Lower is better, and always answering 50% scores a flat 0.25. BearScout's twist is the benchmark: your score is compared with the score the market price would have earned on the same question. Beating the market's implied probability over many settled calls is evidence of genuine forecasting skill; merely matching it means the crowd already knew what you knew.
Why score against the market instead of just the outcome?
Outcome-only scoring rewards picking easy questions. The prevailing market price is a free, aggregated forecast — so BearScout treats it as the bar to clear, the same standard used in forecasting research since Tetlock's Good Judgment Project popularized proper scoring rules for skill measurement.
How BearScout compares with other ways to practice
| Method | Scored against | Question source | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| BearScout | Market ask price (Brier) | Live prediction markets | Free |
| Metaculus / GJ Open | Community + outcome | Curated tournaments | Free |
| Paper trading | Simulated fills | Any market | Free |
| Private spreadsheet | Whatever you record | Self-chosen | Free |
These are complementary, not competing: tournaments give you long-horizon questions, paper trading tests execution, and BearScout gives fast feedback loops against a hard benchmark. A fuller guide: How to practice forecasting — Brier scores and calibration.
What BearScout is not
It is not wagering (no money changes hands, ever), not a signal service, and not investment advice. Share cards show calibration statistics only — a scored forecast is not investment performance. TraderBear is not a registered investment adviser.
Play BearScout free at trader-bear.com/bear-scout · TraderBear Learn